The Six Nations is set for an epic finale this coming weekend. It's a three horse race between France; Scotland and Ireland. This past weekend's results not only cut the contenders from five to three but it could change the landscape of the Six Nations and the sport of rugby.
Part of this was a result of this past weekend's action. It saw Scotland defeat log leaders France 50-40 and Italy defeating the English 23-18. These two scorelines sent shockwaves among the rugby community.
This has to be the greatest victory of the Gregor Townsend era and the greatest single performance against such class opponents since a whole lot longer than that - 1990, perhaps.
Before any of these lads were born, even the veteran Grant Gilchrist.
Out Scotland came for the second half with a five-point lead, a match to win, a sensation to deliver to the rugby world. Against England in round two, they had shown their lovely invention but that side of their personality had never been in doubt.
In Cardiff, a fortnight ago, they showed their mental strength in adversity, something they haven't shown enough of over the years. A step forward, that. Here, at a heaving Murrayfield stuffed with the expectant French; they found their complete self. Or, at least, they carried on showing their complete self.
France were spooked. No dominance in the air like they had in their first three games; no record amount of offloads; no easily-manipulated defence in front of them; no flurry of tries from the get-go and no soft touches down the other end. They made errors and were made to pay for them by a ruthless team.
They hit Scotland with two quick tries but Scotland hit back hard. They weren't used to this. The home team, with their unending fight and ambition, took them to a dark place and France couldn't find their way back to the light.
As well as his dressing room chat, French coach, Galthie bigged-up the Scottish threat but that stuff didn't get the same kind of headlines. It was obvious in his words that he was a touch concerned about the threat coming his way. And he was right.
In a third-quarter that made you rub your eyes in disbelief, Scotland were adventurous and attritional; lethal in scoring tries and savage in the collision areas.
In the building of a monster lead, they made a fantastic team look ordinary. Nobody outside of their bubble saw this coming.
A five-point lead became 12 when Ben White took off at the side of a ruck two minutes into the new hal and 12 became 19 when Kyle Steyn ran half the length of the Corstorphine Road to score Scotland's fifth.
We came here thinking we'd be celebrating the great Louis Bielle-Biarrey, who has now scored in nine straight Six Nations games and in 25 in his 26 Tests; but Steyn outshone him.
He was insanely good, not just in scoring two tries but in his decision-making; his defence and his agenda-setting work-rate. Steyn is world class from his top to his toe.
That third quarter was a whirlwind. Opportunistic and brutal. Jack Dempsey was a human thunderclap but hardly alone in that.
Scotland lost men to injury but never let up. Graham scored again, then Tom Jordan. Scotland had seven tries and 47 points on the board. Men possessed. France's Slam trampled underfoot. Murrayfield went berserk.
In Scotland’s brightest moment, Gregor Townsend returned to his darkest hour, to the game which for three months had been used as a stick to beat him with.
As all around him supporters danced with joy and captain, Sione Tuipulotu, spoke of the players having done it for the coach; Townsend retraced the roots of this epic success.
Back from Saturday’s astonishing 50-40 scoreline, which killed France‘s Grand Slam dream and makes both the championship and Triple Crown possible for Scotland, to the day the same group were branded bottlers and written off as a lost cause.
Townsend pinpointed that November afternoon and how his side coughed up a 21-0 lead to Argentina on the same patch of Murrayfield turf, conceding five tries in the last 24 minutes with catastrophic consequences.
"It was a line in the sand," he said. "We had to face some truths. While it was really painful for us as a group – coaches, players and supporters – to lose that game, we’ve been a different team since then."
"You need those painful moments, those defeats, to make you the team you’re going to be."
From the loss to Italy, this has been a delightful freakshow from Scotland.
Three wins in a row, three bonus points in a row, England and France battered and something to play for on the final day. Rarefied air and how Townsend's players will be breathing it in right now.
They are wounded warriors, though. Few wins of this magnitude come without a price. Gregor Brown is out of the Dublin trip. Scott Cummings is struggling. Novenas for some others - Steyn and Huw Jones included.
The trip to Dublin was already a Triple Crown decider. Now it's potentially a whole lot more than that. The winner would become champions if France slip-up against England, which, to be fair, is highly improbable given the state of the English.
Scotland have a second bite at it. A bonus point win in Ireland and no bonus point win for France in Paris and then, unbelievably, the Scots are the champions.
They won't bog themselves down with the permutations, for wins against Ireland are thin on the ground for Scotland.
They've lost 11 in a row under Townsend, some of them by vast margins and some of them over before they ever really started. Ireland have a tendency to come out of the traps hard and fast against Scotland.
In recent years, there's been an edge between the nations, some in Ireland being fond of accusing Scotland players of hyping themselves despite having achieved nothing. The Scots replied with a bemused weariness at this phantom bombast they're being accused of.
There's been clashes between players and rancour between unions but all of that will be phoney wars compared to what is about to happen in Dublin.
The real deal is on its way. Winner (maybe) takes all. Winner (certainly) takes the Triple Crown. After the dog-days of the Italy loss; Townsend and his players would have taken your hand for this scenario.
They kept a lid on their euphoria after France. Townsend spoke warmly about the performance, the graft and the craft they showed but he wasn't exactly shouting from any rooftops.
Beside him, Tuipulotu was measured and focused, a picture of contentment after a job spectacularly well done; while giving off the vibe that there's another, even bigger job, to do on Saturday.
On a day that threw up so many memorable images, that one final one of the captain and his studied calm was impressive, too.
Scotland have "one more week to finish the job" as they target an unlikely Six Nations triumph, says captain Sione Tuipulotu.
Gregor Townsend's side ended France's Grand Slam hopes with an exhilarating seven-try victory at Murrayfield to go level on points with Les Bleus at the top of the championship.
They go to Dublin next weekend knowing a win over Ireland gives them a chance of a first title since 1999 before the French host England later in the day.
For 65 minutes on Saturday, Scotland destroyed one of the best teams in the world. They carved through the bedraggled French defence again and again and again.
Darcy Graham scored twice, as did opposite wing, Kyle Steyn. Pierre Schoeman, the effervescent Ben White and Tom Jordan also crossed as the usually unflappable French floundered.
The returning Jack Dempsey was outstanding and, until a late French rally snatched a bonus point, Scotland stood alone at the top of the table.
It was a position few, if any, would have predicted for Townsend's side after their opening defeat by Italy last month.
"Considering how this tournament started for us, we believe now the tournament is not over," Tuipulotu said. "We've got ourselves an opportunity next week."
"I could not be prouder to be captain of this team. We stuck together after a tough autumn and a tough first round and have given ourselves one more job to do next week. One more week to finish the job."
Scotland had never previously reached 40 points against France, let alone 50. It was an unforgettable afternoon for everyone of a Scottish persuasion at Murrayfield.
"I don't think anyone thought it would be 50-40," former Scotland captain, John Barclay, said on BBC One. "Scotland had to be brave. They came with a clear plan and were unbelievably good. They made a really good French team look average in large parts of the game."
So much done and so much left to do for a team that looks to have come of age.
France arrived at Murrayfield as Grand Slam chasers; as tournament favourites and as the most complete team in European rugby. They left having conceded 50 points on a night that felt, at its worst, like watching a locksmith hand a burglar his own keys.
France captain, Antoine Dupont, said as much, and he said it without flinching.
"We absorbed every collision and couldn’t get ourselves out of it," he told Planet Rugby. "Obviously as half-backs, me at nine, that’s my responsibility too. I had no physical problems during the match. I made two errors that cost us dearly."
He paused before adding what amounted to a quiet indictment of the evening’s shape. "The performance wasn’t there. But talking about individual performances won’t advance the debate. We’ll need to think collectively about not finding ourselves in that situation again."
The errors Dupont referenced came at moments when France were still within touching distance. Each one bled momentum. Scotland, playing with the liberated ferocity of a side that had spent three rounds waiting for this particular fixture, needed no second invitation and in a flash; they had Murrayfield roaring, they had France rattled and when French discipline cracked, as Dupont acknowledged it did, the Scots were merciless.
Toulouse flanker, François Cros, one of the few that emerged with reputation semi-intact, was characteristically honest: "We went through the motions,” he said. “We were beaten in the contest, in the mindset, in the attitude. It wasn’t what we owed ourselves on a match of this importance. We must have got our approach slightly wrong, even if the reaction at the end was commendable. But we didn’t come here to concede 50 points. Our 40 are incidental and lucky. A decoy, really, because Scotland had eased off by then."
He was asked about overconfidence, about whether the Grand Slam noise had seeped into the dressing room before the work was done. "I don’t know," he said and the pause before it was telling. "But it makes you think. Maybe we saw ourselves in a slightly too flattering light, maybe we were thinking about other things before thinking about competing today.”
The turning point, in his view, was the beginning of the second half. France trailed 19-15 at the interval, which was uncomfortable but not alarming. What followed was. Two yellow cards, a defence that invited rather than resisted,and Scotland given the time and space to do precisely what Scotland do when the handbrake is off.
"We conceded points quickly, let them run and pull clear," Cros said. "We lacked character and reaction after a first half that was already not great. But we were still in it."
"Antoine was stifled. A bit like the team as a whole. When you’re being dominated, it’s naturally harder for him. But we shouldn’t point fingers at anyone and everyone has their share of responsibility."
What France produced still contained passages of the instinctive, high-tempo brilliance that has made this team the most watchable in the championship. They scored 40 points not as scraps or consolations but from genuine attacking intent, from that offloading game and positional fluidity that no other side in this tournament has come close to replicating. The gap between intent and outcome was where France’s evening fell apart.
Thomas Ramos had been wary enough during the week to leave a door open.
"I did an interview where I said it’s impossible to talk about a Grand Slam until we’ve come to play in Scotland," he reflected afterwards. "Well, there’s the proof," he said, in typical Ramos style, with something between resignation and dark amusement.
The full-back was not prepared to let the evening become a wake and that told you something important about where this France squad are in their thinking. The tournament remained theirs to win.
"We want to win this second consecutive tournament," he said. "It’s been a very long time since France won two in a row and we don’t want to let that go to another nation. Yes, we’re a bit deflated given the score, but we’ll switch very quickly to the England match to prepare it as best we can."
Cros framed the week ahead with characteristic bluntness, saying: "The Grand Slam is gone but we are still in a position to win this tournament. We’ll have no excuses next Saturday. It’s up to us to prepare well and go and find something beautiful."
France will regroup whilst England await. The Six Nations title remains in French hands to surrender or retain. Dupont will want to put his errors right, Cros will want the scoreline never raised again and Ramos will want the trophy.
Scotland gave them a night that stung. France had better hope the pain is the kind that teaches rather than the kind that lingers because England will have watched every minute of this and drawn their own conclusions.
Scotland have earned the right to dream. France, humiliated and strangely fortunate, retain the right to win it anyway.
Italy joined the festivities with Scotland as they clinched a first ever win over the English.
Prior to Saturday's game in Rome, Italy vs. England was the most predictable fixture in the Six Nations. Italy had never beaten England in the tournament and had lost every one of their 32 meetings in all competitions.
That miserable run finally ended with a hard-fought 23-18 victory at a raucous Stadio Olimpico. Steve Borthwick's England side came into the match under pressure after dismal back-to-back defeats, increasing Italy's belief of causing a historic upset.
That is what materialised as the hosts capitalised on second-half yellow cards for Sam Underhill and Maro Itoje to seal an emotional win in the final quarter. Several players jumped into each others' arms at the full-time whistle; while others fell to the floor overcome with the enormity of the result.
Tommaso Menoncello carved straight through England's defence for a first-half score and powered his way up the wing to set up Leonardo Marin's vital late try, with Paolo Garbisi kicking three penalties.
"At the start of the game, there was a lot of tension but I am really proud of the boys," captain, Michele Lamaro, told BBC Sport. "It is amazing to keep writing Italian history. It's something we are proud of. We are doing this to inspire Italian people to come and play for this team."
Victory means they have now beaten all five of their Six Nations rivals since entering the competition in 2000. The full house comes seven years after the then-Six Nations chief executive rejected questions over whether Italy should still be part of the tournament after finishing with another Wooden Spoon.
At that stage, Italy were ranked 15th in the world and had lost their past 17 Six Nations games. Back then, a win of any sort looked unlikely - a victory over one of the tournament powerhouses required a near miracle.
In 2022, fly-half Paolo Garbisi sank to his knees and cried as his last-gasp conversion defeated Wales; ending Italy's seven-year Six Nations losing run. Zero wins and a record 18th Wooden Spoon followed in the 2023 tournament but a new crop of young talent was emerging.
The appointment of Argentine, Gonzalo Quesada as head coach in 2024 was a turning point, while Italy's investment at under-20 level and in their domestic teams was reaping dividends.
Wins over Scotland and Wales helped them secure their best campaign in terms of results but Quesada's side struggled with expectations last year and only defeated Wales.
That hasn't been the case this year. An opening win over Scotland was backed up by running Ireland - back-to-back champions in 2023 and 2024 - close in Dublin, followed by a spirited performance in Lille against France.
Unlike the 2024 defeat by France, they grabbed hold of the game when it was on the line.
"It is a very tough process because you have to change the mindset," Lamaro added on the growing expectation of his side. "We are used to being last and the underdog, but at the same time, we are building trust in each other, and that is what matters the most."
Italy are now in a strong position to finish above England for the first time in the Six Nations, with a final game to come against winless Wales on Saturday in Cardiff.
Having recorded two wins in 2024 for the first time since 2013, Quesada's side are eyeing a third victory to conclude their best-ever campaign.
"To win today, with expectations to win against an amazing England side, is such a big step in our growth," Quesada told ITV. "We have to keep our feet on the ground and not get too excited - we have to keep going, but it is a big day for Italian rugby today."
The Azzurri conceded 80 points against England in 2001, with their largest margin of defeat coming by 60 points in 1999. In the campaign that brought the historic win over Wales four years ago, Italy lost 33-0 in Rome to England.
The next time England came to Rome, they were behind 17-14 at half-time; eventually escaping with a 27-24 win.
Centre Menoncello, named player of the match in the win over England, featured that day alongside Juan Ignacio Brex in the midfield - a combination that has been vital to Italy's rise.
The 23-year-old, who became the Six Nations' youngest player-of-the-tournament award winner in 2024, will sign for Toulouse next season after developing into one of the best centres in the world.
In that three-point defeat, 10 of the starting XV retained their spots for the fixture two years later. "It's a massive win, and we have been expecting and working for this victory over the last three years," Menoncello told ITV Sport.
"We knew it was going to happen, and we worked extremely hard over the last week to get the result.We knew we conceded an easy try at the end of the first half, but when we came back out, we were on fire. We stuck to the game plan, and in the last quarter of the game, we were in England's half."
If the manner of defeats to Scotland and Ireland was striking in the fact that England were never really in the contest, their historic Six Nations loss to Italy in Rome was worrying in an altogether different way.
Steve Borthwick has spoken of how of his side had learned from the tough times of 2024 and become a better side at winning Test matches when they become an arm-wrestle, backing his bench to close out games in the final quarter.
At the moment that Fin Smith struck his second penalty through the uprights, England had a lead of eight points and a man advantage; with nearly 54 minutes on the clock. It was a position of supreme strength for a side that had made converting that scenario into victory a speciality during their 12-match winning run.
So what, exactly, went wrong for England in a horror half-hour? Here’s how they managed to throw the game away against an impressive Italy:
Six points in six minutes
England’s aerial game was generally better in Rome than it had been in against Scotland and Ireland, with 38 kicks in play representing a return to their strategy. Their problems, however, begin with Elliot Daly losing an aerial challenge from Monty Ioane, and Italy picking up the second ball.
The defensive line reforms well and Ellis Genge and Sam Underhill put in what appears to be a strong double shot on Danilo Fischetti. A few phases later, the open side snaffles a breakdown turnover; England clear and force a knock-on in the Italy half. TMO, Eric Gauzins, calls down to referee, Luc Ramos, to inspect Underhill’s hit, finding clear shoulder-to-head contact. Italy convert the penalty to narrow the gap to five points.
Soon enough, they would whittle away further. A poor Fin Smith punt means England lose a kicking exchange, before Maro Itoje is beaten in the air at the lineout.
Italy play away quickly to the right off the turnover, getting to the edge. Tommy Freeman scrambles back to collect Louis Lynagh’s chip, but holds on as Italy jackal.
Maro Itoje’s moment of madness
More troubles soon follow. With Underhill’s sanction just confirmed to be staying a yellow card, and the need for discipline thereafter underlined, Italy attempt to maul from a lineout on the left. England do well both to stall it and keep forward bodies out of the tangled mass, with Jamie George and Ben Earl adding width to the defensive line.
However, as Alessandro Fusco attempts to play away, Itoje can't resist a slap at the ball. The lock had been back to his spoiling best in Rome but this was an uncharacteristically bad decision; particularly given the scenario in which it came.
Muddled bench usage
Regardless of game situation, Borthwick has generally gone to his forward replacements early in games, showing real conviction and clarity over their proactive usage. Not so here – perhaps thrown by the late shuffle necessitated by Tom Curry’s injury, only loosehead prop, Bevan Rodd, was introduced before the 65-minute mark.
With Underhill and Itoje in the bin, Borthwick was short of options but it was perhaps a surprise not to see Henry Pollock sent on sooner than the 73rd minute. Ollie Chessum, meanwhile, made an immediate impact, springing up at the front of a line out to steal ball in the 67th minute; it came after Ben Earl had superbly stalled an Italian maul almost single-handedly.
At that point, Borthwick appeared ready to introduce Luke Cowan-Dickie for Jamie George yet didn't even with the replacement hooker stripped and ready, seemingly wanting his starter to take the pressure throw to follow on his own five-metre line. It took another nine minutes for Cowan-Dickie to be introduced.
Italy strike superbly
Having survived one five-metre line-out with 13 men, England might have felt growing confidence that they could see the game out and get through to the end of the Itoje sin-binning. Italy, who have had their own conversion troubles in this tournament, produced a brilliant strike from their own half, bursting England open from a position of relative calm.
When Paolo Garbisi checks back onto his left foot to kick crossfield, the visiting backline is numbered up well, with three of their best athletes covering across towards the recipient Ioane.
Seb Atkinson, obviously fatiguing after going deep on his Six Nations debut, appeared slightly sluggish as he rushes across to help Tom Roebuck and Freeman out. With the touchline as an extra defender, Roebuck should have handled Ioane as he comes back to floor but over-chases, allowing him to be beaten on the inside and forcing Freeman to step in and tackle.
An offload gives Tommaso Menoncello a healthy run-up into Daly, who can't halt him. With Atkinson having committed to a tackle attempt, an unguarded Leonardo Marin provides good inside support and canters under the posts for what proved the winning score.
Missed opportunities
Even after conceding that try, England had opportunities. Again, their lack of clinical edge became clear on a day where their points-per-22 entry was just 1.6 – the third successive week in which it has been below two. In the 75th minute, in a passage that began with Cadan Murley winning back a Jack Van Poortvliet box kick; England play a few phases before Fin Smith produces an ill-conceived and ill-executed box kick over a marked Roebuck.
Their best chance, though, came in the last knockings. With the two Smiths orchestrating, Italy’s defence is dragged out of shape and Van Poortvliet has three passing options in Alex Coles, Trevor Davison and Ollie Chessum, putting his Leicester teammate through a gap after breaching contact and offloading.
The scrum-half then tries to keep momentum up with a snipe around the corner, forcing Freeman in to play nine. The centre goes it alone, though, and Trevor Davison and Luke Cowan-Dickie can’t shift Michele Lamaro as he latches over the top for the game-sealing jackal penalty. It’s some effort from the Italy captain at the end of a typically all-action performance.
The penalty is punted to touch, providing England a last chance to snatch the ball back. With three long-limbed locks (Itoje, Coles and Chessum) on the pitch,and Italy likely to throw to the front; they do not even contest the final line out, with Itoje and Davison messing up their lift of Chessum.
It marked a fitting end to a day to raise deeper questions about England’s direction.
Never previously have England ended a campaign with just a single win; with a trip to Paris to face pent-up French frustration in three days’ time, contemplating any other outcome now feels fanciful.
If there could be no shame in losing to this ever-improving, ever more believing Italy, there could be shame again in the manner in which it happened – an eight-point lead squandered, a game in their grasp let slip by a side that had seemed to have put that sort of thing behind them.
England looked ill-disciplined, ill-prepared and inaccurate – the very opposite of the side Borthwick has sought to forge. Even the great Roman emperor Aurelian would struggle for a solution to this crisis.
"We have to face the facts and face reality," Maro Itoje told ITV. To extend some meagre credit to Borthwick, he had tried contrasting approaches in response to the two prior losses; first sticking, then twisting, but finding neither delivered the desired impact. Having talked up England’s depth throughout the 12-match winning run that had made them Six Nations contenders, it has been found desperately wanting.
The unthinkable question now for the Rugby Football Union (RFU) is whether a drastic change is required. That may not – and probably shouldn't – necessarily mean that Borthwick’s job is in peril, with senior figures from the union recently emphasising as much to The Independent.
Results like this, however, improved Italy are, can burst beyond the rugby bubble – to the casual watcher, who might have missed much of last year’s good times and still know the hosts as Six Nations stragglers, this will have felt like something very, very bad. There is also a sense that the English rugby public at large find Borthwick’s somewhat insipid public-facing persona not to their taste.
"The RFU, myself, Conor O’Shea [director of performance rugby] and Bill Sweeney [chief executive] speak regularly and discuss the vision of the team going forward," Borthwick said. "We know the team have accelerated its development over the last 12 months and also understanding that right now in this Six Nations there are going to be some tough challenges ahead and clearly, we have not got results in those challenges we have wanted."
"The team’s growth in the last 12 months has been very, very strong, and you can see the vision of where the team is going to be, and you see the players coming through. Right now, this is a tough period, but what we will do is learn from it and make sure we are stronger going forward. It is tough right now and we are not hiding away from the fact it is tough. We are not where we want to be in terms of results and in terms of performances."
As Itoje emphasised, though, the group of players must take their share of the blame, too. If it was no great look for the England captain to be caught fiddling at a maul while Rome burned, it continued a theme of the tournament of Borthwick’s leaders letting him down.
"It’s on us as players,” the captain stressed. “We have to wear the performance. This team over the last year have put some good performances together; of recent, we haven’t. We are in a results-based business, and the result wasn’t good enough. As players, and as captain, I take responsibility for that."
Another mid-cycle change is not at all in the RFU’s planning, not least because of the financial hit and considerable upheaval it suffered after the defenestration of Eddie Jones. Borthwick and his employers would probably, and rightly, point to last year’s run of wins as still considerably outweighing the three defeats that have followed.
The Six Nations matters most to all European nations. "We haven’t become a bad team overnight," has been a common refrain in camp of late. Perhaps England have.
It may get worse, of course, before it gets better. Beyond Paris comes the Springboks in Johannesburg, an arduous trip at the best of times made harder by the fact that it will come at altitude, at the end of a long campaign in which some of England’s most experienced players are already struggling. Further Nations Championship games in Liverpool (against Fiji) and Santiago del Estero (against Argentina) will strain minds and bodies further – and not just those of the logistics managers.
"We want England fans flooding across the Channel to Paris to come and watch the team in a massive encounter on the final round with the opportunity to achieve what we want," Borthwick had somewhat hubristically declared ahead of this tournament. Instead, he may be coaching for his future.
These two results were a mixed bag for me. I was expecting a total French demolition over the Scots. I believe that there was an element of overconfidence among the French. I'm happy that Scotland won. They seemed to be the ones to want to win the match the most.
I mean no disrespect to the English but I believe that they are slowly declining. I remember the days when they absolutely dominant. Italy are the opposite. They have been on the rise for some time now.
I could see Italy win the Six Nations in perhaps, the next 2-3 years.
As for this tournament, it would be nice to see Scotland win it. I've never "seen" them win it. After all, I was only five years old when they last won it.